Modi-Xi Meeting: What Will India and China Gain?

New Delhi: On October 23, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Kazan, Russia, capturing the world’s attention. This was the first high-level meeting between the two nations since the 2020 Galwan clash, which had led to heightened tensions between India and China. With global issues like the U.S.-Russia conflict and China-Taiwan tensions escalating, this meeting comes at a critical time. The key question is: why did India and China decide to meet, and what do they stand to gain from it? Let’s explore the strategies behind this crucial dialogue.

Why India Made This Decision

1. Modi’s Diplomacy of Peace

Prime Minister Modi has always favoured diplomacy and dialogue for resolving conflicts. Be it the Russia-Ukraine war or the Israel-Middle East crisis, Modi has consistently called for peace and discussions. After the 2020 Galwan clash, India continued talks with China, aiming to reduce border tensions. Through this meeting, Modi once again demonstrated that his approach is not just advice for others but something he practices himself — promoting diplomacy over conflict.

2. Rejecting US Pressure

There was growing pressure from the US, suggesting that a war with China might be inevitable and that India would not get support from Russia in such a scenario. However, by choosing peaceful negotiations with China, India has weakened this U.S. narrative. India has shown that it will maintain a balanced and independent foreign policy, without being drawn into one camp or the other.

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3. Strategic Autonomy

India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has repeatedly emphasized that India prioritizes its national interests when making foreign policy decisions. Whether it’s relations with Russia or the U.S., India does not act under the influence of any external power. This meeting sends a message that India is willing to improve relations with its neighbour China, without any outside interference.

4. China: A Necessary Neighbour

India shares a 3,500-kilometer-long border with China. Despite the Galwan conflict, trade between the two countries has exceeded $110 billion annually. India has taken a practical approach to repairing relations with China, understanding the importance of maintaining stability both in trade and security.

Why China Needs This Dialogue

1. No Opposition on Taiwan

China’s ambitions to take control of Taiwan by 2025 are no secret. One of the reasons behind Xi Jinping’s meeting with Modi is to ensure that India does not oppose China’s actions regarding Taiwan. While China may not expect outright support from India, it hopes that India will not take a stand against its “One China” policy.

2. Tackling US Pressure

The U.S. has been increasing pressure on China, especially on issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea. In the midst of this, the US views India as a key partner in its strategy against China. By restoring ties with India, Xi Jinping aims to weaken this US-led strategy.

3. Countering the Quad Alliance

The Quad alliance—comprising India, the U.S., Australia, and Japan—is a major concern for China. Even though the Quad is not a military alliance, China views it as an “Asian NATO.” By strengthening ties with India, the only Quad country sharing a land border with China, Xi Jinping aims to counterbalance this group’s influence.

4. Political Shifts in Bangladesh

Recent political upheavals in Bangladesh, including Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s temporary exile in August, have shaken China. With Bangladesh’s growing ties to the U.S., China is worried about American influence expanding in the region. By aligning with India, China hopes to prevent the U.S. from gaining a foothold in the Bay of Bengal.

5. India’s Rising Global Influence

Whether in the Russia-Ukraine conflict or the Israel-Middle East crisis, India has established itself as a key player with an independent and balanced foreign policy. As the world’s third-largest economy, India’s diplomatic and strategic stature is growing. China has realized that maintaining hostility with India is not beneficial and seeks a more cooperative approach.

The Modi-Xi meeting has the potential to reshape India-China relations. As two of the world’s largest and most influential nations, this dialogue will not only impact Asia but could shift the global balance as well. While China is extending a hand of friendship, India will likely approach this with caution and careful consideration.