Jammu & Kashmir exit poll analysis: Dalit, OBC, Muslim vote breakdown – which party secured majority? | India News

Jammu: After voting for the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana, exit poll estimates were released on October 5. According to these estimates, Congress and National Conference (NC) alliance appeared to have an advantage in the Jammu and Kashmir elections. 

Some exit polls suggested that this alliance is close to gaining a majority, but People’s Democratic Party (PDP) could play the role of a kingmaker.

Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections 2024: What exit poll estimates stated

In Jammu and Kashmir, C-Voter’s exit poll showed that NC-Congress alliance could win 40-48 seats, while the BJP might secure 27-32 seats in the 90-member assembly. PDP is projected to get between 6-12 seats, and other parties or independent candidates are expected to win 6-11 seats.

Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll predicted NC-Congress alliance will secure 35-40 seats, and BJP will get 20-25 seats in the region. It estimated that PDP will win 4-7 seats and other candidates will secure 12-18 seats.

Similarly, Axis My India surveys projected NC-Congress winning between 35 and 45 seats, while BJP could win 24-35 seats. PDP is expected to get 4-6 seats and other smaller parties might win between 8-23 seats.

People’s Pulse’s survey predicted that Congress will win 46-50 seats, with the BJP getting 23-27 seats. The survey also estimated that PDP will win 7-11 seats, while others are expected to get 4-6 seats.

Estimated voting percentages based on castes

Regarding the voting patterns in Jammu, Axis My India exit polls suggested that Congress alliance (Congress and National Conference) is likely to secure 37% of the Dalit votes, while BJP could win 43% of the Dalit vote share. The Muslim vote seems to have largely gone to Congress alliance. 

In Jammu and Kashmir overall, upper castes, Dalits, and OBCs (Other Backward Classes) showed strong support for BJP. The exit polls revealed that the BJP has garnered 44% of the votes in Jammu region, compared to Congress’s 34%. This 10% lead indicate that the BJP is stronger in Jammu region.

If these numbers hold, some political analysts believe BJP could win 36-37 seats in Jammu. Caste-wise voting patterns also show that Rajputs, Baniyas and Brahmins have largely voted for BJP. 

Around 71% of Rajputs and 69% of Brahmins have voted for BJP in this election, while 43% of Dalits in Jammu region also backed the party. However, BJP has not been successful in winning Muslim votes in either Jammu or Kashmir regions.

First election after abolition of Article 370

These assembly elections are significant as they are being held for the first time after the removal of Article 370, which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir. In this election, Congress has formed an alliance with Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference, while Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP is contesting the elections alone. Similarly, the BJP is also contesting independently without forming an alliance.

With the recent delimitation in the state, the number of assembly seats has increased from 83 to 90. Out of these, 43 seats are in Jammu region, while 47 are in Kashmir region.

If the final election results match the exit poll predictions, PDP could play a crucial role in forming the government in Jammu and Kashmir. In the previous 2014 elections, no party achieved an absolute majority. At that time, BJP and PDP formed a coalition government, with Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as the Chief Minister. After his death in 2016, his daughter, Mehbooba Mufti, became the Chief Minister. However, the coalition government collapsed in June 2018, leading to the imposition of governor’s rule in the state.

If no party gains a clear majority in this election, the PDP’s support will again be key in deciding the next government in Jammu and Kashmir.