New Delhi: When Bangladesh army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman, in a televised address, informed the world that Sheikh Hasina had resigned from the Prime Minister’s post before fleeing the country, it marked a watershed moment for India.
Already surrounded by politically unstable neighbours, the developments in Bangladesh could pose another challenge for the Indian government. The country finds itself at a critical juncture: Pakistan’s economic crisis, Nepal’s ever-changing political alignments, Sri Lanka’s economic difficulties following a political crisis where the president had to flee, Afghanistan under Taliban rule with no scope for democracy, and the fall of a democratically elected government in Myanmar, where the military junta imposes hardships on the people, all contribute to a perfect recipe for disaster along India’s borders.
With Sheikh Hasina sheltering in India, and an interim government, averse to their neighbour’s interest, taking charge, security and strategic interests might take a beating.
Bangladesh: The departure of a critical friend
According to a Bloomberg report, Sheikh Hasina had indicated last month that her government would prefer neighbouring India to undertake a $1 billion Teesta River development project. The Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration is a Dhaka-led initiative to better manage the river’s waters. This project was significant as China was also interested, which could have posed a security concern for India. What would happen to that, nobody knows.
The Bloomberg report further noted that an agreement on sharing the river’s water was reached between the countries in 2011 but could not be finalised after West Bengal, through which the river flows before entering Bangladesh, objected to the deal. As India hesitated over resolving the issue, China stepped in with its proposal. New Delhi responded earlier this year with its own offer amid security concerns about Chinese engineers working close to its borders.
Hasina was always conscious of India’s security concerns. Her administration was responsible for cracking down on militants from India’s northeast, as well as other terrorists sheltering in Bangladesh. Members of the separatist group United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), one of India’s major issues, hid in Bangladesh for years before Sheikh Hasina took over and expelled them. She also cracked down on terror groups operating from the country.
Her departure raises concerns about the future direction of Bangladesh’s political landscape and the potential rise of anti-India forces, as both the Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party(BNP) and the Pakistan-backed Jamaat-e-Islami are known for their anti-India rhetoric. For them Hasina won the last two general elections with the support of India (read BJP).
The fact that Sheikh Hasina is now in New Delhi awaiting asylum in a friendly country does not help to alleviate the anti-Indian sentiment. Even during the quota agitations, anti-India slogans were prevalent.
Pakistan: Persistent turmoil and economic woes
Pakistan’s political scene remains fraught with instability, with frequent protests by former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party workers. Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote after a key ally ditched it in April 2022, a move attributed to his falling out with the powerful Pakistani army. He was subsequently arrested in August 2023 on various charges, which he denies.
A new coalition government is still unstable, as it is based on a fragile give-and-take arrangement that could collapse at any moment. Economically, Pakistan faces severe challenges, including high inflation, energy shortages, and a growing debt crisis. India’s approach has been one of cautious observation, avoiding direct involvement while remaining prepared to respond to any security threats from its neighbour. This policy allows New Delhi to focus on internal stability and regional security.
Nepal: Political volatility and Sino-Indian rivalry
Nepal’s political instability is evident from the fact that the country has witnessed 14 governments in the past 16 years. Political developments in Kathmandu are closely monitored by rivals New Delhi and Beijing, who both invest in development aid and infrastructure to gain geopolitical influence.
Oli drew Nepal closer to China by signing a transit agreement with Beijing during his first term, ending India’s monopoly over Nepal’s foreign trade. For India, maintaining influence in Nepal is crucial. This involves diplomatic engagement and development aid to counter China’s growing presence. Key bilateral projects, such as the Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project, underscore the need for renewed cooperation to ensure that Nepal’s political shifts do not undermine India’s strategic interests.
Sri Lanka: Economic crisis and strategic interests
In July 2022, Sri Lanka experienced mass protests that led to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation. The demonstrations were driven by widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the economy, which had plunged into crisis due to factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic, soaring global fuel prices, rising debt to China, and mismanagement of public resources. This economic crisis resulted in severe shortages of essential goods, including food, fuel, and medicine.
The administration under Ranil Wickremesinghe is still facing a formidable task of economic recovery and restoring public trust. India has provided financial assistance and development support to Sri Lanka to stabilise its southern neighbour, where China is ever present to gain influence. Ensuring political and economic stability in Sri Lanka is crucial for India, particularly concerning maritime security and strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.
Myanmar: Junta rule and border security
Since the military coup in 2021, Myanmar has faced armed resistance and economic decline. The junta’s inability to control rebel forces near the Chinese border highlights the fragile state of governance.
In February, India decided to cancel the Free Regime Movement (FMR) between the two nations and also decided to fence its 1,643-kilometre border with Myanmar.
Myanmar is vital for New Delhi’s plans to enhance its influence in Southeast Asia, particularly among ASEAN countries, through its Act East Policy. The country is also important in view of security in northeast India, there is a reason why the Indian government is yet to openly denounce the junta rule.
Afghanistan: The Taliban’s return and regional security
The political upheaval in Afghanistan began with the Taliban’s rapid military offensive in 2021, ultimately resulting in their capture of Kabul. This event marked the end of the US-backed Afghan government, which had been in place since the US invasion in 2001. The offensive, which started on May 1, 2021, coincided with the withdrawal of US troops, quickly intensified as the Taliban captured key provincial capitals and territories across the country. In fact the outfit hardly faced any resistance in its quest.
The Taliban’s strict interpretation of Islamic law has imposed severe restrictions on women’s rights, including bans on education and employment. The international community’s response has been largely critical, with many countries imposing sanctions and refusing to recognise the Taliban government.
Although the Indian government has not officially recognised the Taliban regime as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, trade relations remain stable. India’s primary concerns include addressing security threats and maintaining economic engagement while navigating the complexities of not formally recognising the Taliban regime. New Delhi is trying to balance its humanitarian efforts with strategic interests to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a base for anti-India activities.
Coming back to Bangladesh, the abrupt resignation of Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, is significant. Known as India’s staunchest ally in the region, her exit leaves a void. Countering China’s expanding influence remains a priority as India strives to maintain regional stability and foster cooperative relationships essential for its long-term strategic goals.
The way forward for India
For India, a multifaceted approach to the developments in Bangladesh would be ideal:
Engage with all political factions: India should expand its diplomatic efforts to include all major political parties in Bangladesh. Building relationships with the BNP and other influential groups can help mitigate potential hostility.
Public diplomacy and outreach: To counteract anti-Indian sentiments, India should enhance its public diplomacy initiatives. This could include cultural exchanges, educational programmes, and development projects that directly benefit the Bangladeshi populace.
Support democratic processes: India should advocate for free and fair elections in Bangladesh, aligning itself with the will of the Bangladeshi people and countering narratives of interference.
Economic collaboration: Strengthening economic ties through joint ventures and infrastructure projects can create a more interdependent relationship, benefiting both nations and reducing friction.
Regional cooperation: Collaborating with other regional powers and international organisations can help stabilise Bangladesh. A coordinated approach can ensure that external influences, particularly from China or Pakistan, do not destabilise the region further.