The final stage is set for the 2024 US Presidential elections, the voting for which is set for November 5. Democratic Party’s presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival former President Donald Trump are leaving no stone unturned before the election campaign ends for voting. Both leaders are seeking support from the countrymen and are making a passionate appeal to send them to the White House.
Meanwhile, some voters have already cast their votes and the initial voting figures have started coming in, but national surveys still show a tough fight between the two candidates. Election surveys are also predicting an interesting fight between the two candidates in the ‘swing states’.
What polls say
Vice President Kamala Harris has a three-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the final Des Moines Register-sponsored survey of Iowa, three days before the election. The surprising poll showed a seven-point shift from Trump to Harris since September when the same poll had him with a four-point lead over the vice president (47 per cent to 43 per cent). The poll was conducted between October 28-31, and Harris’ lead is within the 3.4 per cent margin of error.
Still, the opinion poll appears to be an outlier. Another poll from Emerson College released on Saturday shows Trump with a 10-point lead (53 per cent to 43 per cent) and he has maintained a substantial lead in other polls as well. Harris leads Trump by three points in the final Des Moines Register-sponsored poll of Iowa three days before the election.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, which measures support in the Hawkeye State, is nationally recognized, and its final results mirror the results of the state’s 2016 and 2020 elections, according to the Des Moines Register. The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
The Des Moines Register says that the independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.
Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favour Harris, but senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63 per cent to 28 per cent, while senior men favour her by just 2 percentage points, 47 per cent to 45 per cent. However, according to 270towin.com, a website covering the US presidential election, Harris is sure to get 226 and Trump 219 electoral votes. While Kamala Harris needs 44 additional electoral college votes to reach the magical figure of 270, Trump needs 51. For victory, both candidates are eyeing seven swing states – Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
The latest surveys by CNN and SSRS have shown some solid leads in two key states, making the contest even tighter in recent weeks. The survey of likely voters found Kamala has a 5-point lead over Trump in Michigan, 48 percent to 43 percent. In Wisconsin, the survey showed Kamala Harris with a 6-point lead. These estimates suggest that Kamala may make a slight lead in these states next week.
However, in Pennsylvania, a state with 19 electoral college votes, an interesting battle is seen between the two candidates with 48 percent support. Pennsylvania has been a key center of campaigning for both Trump and Kamala in this election. Both candidates have stopped in the state several times a month. Pennsylvania went to Trump in 2016, but President Biden regained his home state in 2020. Both victories were within a few percentage points of each other, which means all eyes are on this state this time.
What are the 7 swing states?
Most of the states in the US are historically either the Democrat Party or the Republican Party supporters, but the seven states of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina are those where the mood of the voters is not limited to supporting a single political party. The voters of these states keep changing their choice in every election, as per their mood swings and that is why they are called swing states.
It may be noted that both Trump and Harris are putting in all their efforts in these seven states and addressing big rallies. Along with them are their running mates Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (Democratic Party’s Vice Presidential candidate) and Ohio Senator JD Vance (Republican Party’s Vice Presidential candidate). Campaign managers of both Harris and Trump have deployed thousands of volunteers in the seven swing states, who are going door-to-door and urging Americans to vote.
Additionally, hundreds of Indian-Americans from both sides are campaigning in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia. In the last 50 hours, television networks and local radio stations have been flooded with advertisements related to Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s campaigns. Both candidates have spent millions of dollars on this. Trump and Harris have raised record funds for the last few hours of their election campaign.
